2015年11月16日星期一

Become a Shaper sport bettor

Based on my personal experiences in playing online sports betting Malaysia for 4 years, I guess I could a sharp and pro sport bettor… I guess?! LOL… Well, people used to think that sharps are people with inside information, foolproof systems, and more knowledge than a mere mortal could ever possibly have. No no no... The difference between a sharp bettor and a so-called square is the amount of time and effort they put into their pursuit. A sharp better is because he spends his days and nights studying games, learning how games work, and spotting ways that profit can be found while casual bettors look at a couple of stats, read an article or two, and pick the team they like better. It’s not about inside information but commitment. Anyway, if you want to become a shaper bettor, put more efforts on it. To be a shaper sport bettor, first you have to know that the final score almost never a matter. What sharp bettors are far more concerned about is why the result happened. Did the winner win because their running game was dominant? Was it the loser’s secondary that let them down, or is the defensive line inadequate? Was the kicking game good, or did it let the team down? I could go on and on, but you get the point. The score by itself tells you absolutely nothing, two teams can score in million different ways. What matters are the details that went into getting that result, and what those details can tell you about what might happen in the future? Sharp bettors will focus on those details. Besides, there are very unique situations where sharp bettors will use parlays, but for the most part they don’t want anything to do with these. The reason is the payout on a parlay is less than the risk involved in the parlay; there is a negative expectation to the bets. In other words, if you play them long enough you are going to lose money from them. Negative expectation games are how casinos make their money, but there is no reason you have to reach what the casino expects to do on you. On the other hand, a sharp will always care about is what the line is, how that compares to their view of the game, and if there is a gap between the line and that expectation. In other words, they care about value. That’s because there is the price you are paying doesn’t accurately reflect what you reasonably expect to get out the investment, so over the long term you are confident you will make money. That’s value. 

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